There isn’t a clear annual volume for Kombucha, probiotics, or active beverages – but the category is clearly growing. That will continue – the combination of authentic, healthy, not-bad-for-you (which is not simply the opposite of ‘healthy’), convenient, and ‘new’ will help Kombucha, and the rest of this category, continue to grow.
The estimate of 100,000,000 litres is based on several pieces of information from the Kombucha Brewers Int’l trade group and a survey of retail pricing.
At this volume, Kombucha currently is 1/3 of Bourbon – which has held steady. If last year’s phenomenal growth rate were to hold steady, then we would expect it to pass Bourbon at the close of 2024.
Kombucha will pass Bourbon – but not that quickly. While the production process can be quickly adapted from other production processes, and both the retail channel and investors are thirsty for innovation – it will take at least until 2026 – if not a full decade – for Kombucha to win out.
However, without some truly revolutionary proven health performance, we wouldn’t expect Kombucha to ever pass the 25 billion liters of wine or even approach the nearly 200 billion liters of beer produced each year.