Tech Forecasting and Predictions – Self Blindness (5 of 7)

Reviewing past podcast tech forecast shows reveals that the hosts are very good at making predictions – but it was surprising to me that those who had domain expertise were less likely to make predictions about their area of expertise.  For instance, Patrick Beja not talking about his outlook for the gaming industry was surprising.


Predictions and technology forecasting aren’t easy.

Once I held myself to task and put together my own list of predictions, this hesitation made sense.

The areas where I’m most knowledgeable are technical fabrics, filtration, membranes and material product design.  However, in these domains, I did not want to go into detail at all. I didn’t want to fully share my views on the 1 year, 3 year and 5 year outlooks in those areas.  I didn’t want to give away perspective that is different than what we already have put into the public domain, and I didn’t want to share anything in this forum that might not be 100% in line with what I’ve shared with customers.

Further, like the hosts of those shows – if I’m already known as an expert in that space, there is little incentive to make statements about the future.  I can only be wrong, my reputation can only be hurt.

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